Insights

The American public may not be feeling better about things, but economists clearly are. Most households think the economy is going in the wrong direction, and consumer confidence in one prominent survey is currently at recession levels. To be sure, there is a heavy political component in many of the surveys. Democrats, for example, are far more upbeat than Republicans regarding the health of the economy, but that sentiment is flipped on its head when Republicans occupy the White House. While economists are also influenced by political beliefs, they presumably rely on hard data and are more objective when presenting their outlooks.

(Printable PDF) Year-End Shocks and High Rates Heighten Recession Risk As expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the September 19-20 policy meeting, following 11 hikes over the last 18 months that lifted short-term rates from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent. The jury is still out

(Printable PDF) The Economic Engine is Running Out of Fuel Economists are sounding ever-more like Gilda Radner of Saturday Night Live fame, claiming “never mind” about their recession call of a few months ago. What’s behind their mea culpa? Well, the economy for one thing. The drumbeat of stronger-than-expected data

(Printable PDF) Will This Time Be Different? Contrary to revised expectations – and robust economic data – the business cycle has not been repealed. Yes, a recession is coming, but it is taking an awfully long time to arrive. When it does, its shape may look different, more like a

(Printable PDF) A Pause Does Not Mean Stop As the curtain rises on the second half of the year, the economy’s growth engine is still running on most cylinders. Consumers, the main growth driver, are keeping their wallets open, jobs are still being created at a healthy pace, workers are

(Printable PDF) Why Are Economists So Glum? Economists are often called dismal scientists, as they are more likely to see the proverbial glass as half empty than half full. That label is vividly on display now, as the forecast of a recession within the economic community is more pronounced than

(Printable PDF) From One Challenge to Another While the challenges that rocked the financial markets in March have been defused, their aftereffects are rippling through the economy. We’ll have a better sense of how much credit conditions have tightened on May 8th when the Federal Reserve releases its Senior Loan

(Printable PDF) The Fed’s Direct & Indirect Effects It is a time-honored adage that monetary policy affects the economy with long and variable lags. Well, that time is up, if the tumult caused by the failure of a few regional banks is any indication. It’s important to remember that central

(Printable PDF) The Economy’s Roller Coaster Ride Continues Renewed economic vigor is upending expectations. Last year ended with a thud, with consumers retrenching, inflation receding, and financial markets slumping. Recession fears became more pronounced as did expectations the Federal Reserve would soon pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign to prevent a

(Printable PDF) Slowing Inflation Offers Hope for 2023 Murphy’s Law played out in dramatic fashion last year, as virtually anything that could go wrong seemingly did. The pandemic morphed into a new variant; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited a spike in energy, food and other commodity prices that reinforced the

(Printable PDF) Recession Ahead: Will It Be Mild Or Severe? It was a rough 2022, but the U.S. economy survived the myriad headwinds thrown at it, including raging inflation, geopolitical stress, skyrocketing interest rates, declining stock prices, a recurring COVID-19 wave, and the most aggressive pivot towards monetary tightening in

(Printable PDF) This Too Won’t Last Has the inflation worm turned? It’s still early, but the signs are encouraging as an expanding list of price measures are pointing to slower increases. Whether this favorable trend continues is an open question. Many factors underpinned the astonishing inflation cycle of the past

(Printable PDF) Slamming On the Brakes: Is a Crash Ahead? Alarms warning of a recession ring louder with each rate hike by the Federal Reserve. So far this year, there’s been plenty – five since March and still counting. Following the last three jumbo-sized 0.75 percentage point increases, the Fed’s

(Printable PDF) Recession Watch Enough is enough! The economy has demonstrated an astonishing amount of resiliency against the headwinds thrown at it over the past two years – Covid-19, both short and long, surging energy prices, spiraling interest rates, supply shortages, and, not least, stubbornly high inflation. Through it all,

(Printable PDF) Confusing Times As summer draws to a close, the debate over whether the economy is overheated or rapidly cooling remains unanswered. According to the broadest measure of activity conditions look downright recessionary, as GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period, satisfying the common yardstick

(Printable PDF) Don’t Rule Out A Soft Landing In real estate, they say location is everything. In economics, timing is paramount. With prices rising at a pace not seen since the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve admittedly waited too long to start putting on the brakes, believing that the initial

(Printable PDF) For The Fed, Failure To Curb Inflation Is Not An Option Last year the main debate among economists was whether the inflation upsurge that suddenly gripped the nation was transitory or lasting. Most, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, blamed transient forces related to the pandemic, which they

(Printable PDF) When Will Inflation Peak? It’s been a rough ride for investors as red ink has spilled profusely so far this year. The losses have been particularly acute in the bond market, which, ironically is usually the refuge for investors seeking safety and stability when conditions get dicey. Not