Economic Newsletter

(Printable PDF) AI Boom, Hiring Bust: Is 2026 The Next Jobless Expansion? The data fog is finally lifting now that the longest government shutdown on record has ended. But it will be a while before policymakers, economists and investors get full clarity on the economy’s performance. That’s because the data

(Printable PDF) Shutdown Blues To say that flying blind is a dangerous undertaking would be as obvious as it is true. Yet that is precisely what policymakers are dealing with – at least as of this writing. In the absence of government economic data due to the shutdown, the Federal

(Printable PDF) A Curious Balance Despite the drama leading up to the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, monetary officials did the expected – cutting interest rates for the first time this year. While unsurprising, the move was shrouded in a good deal of controversy; and future actions are hardly cast

(Printable PDF) Still A Bifurcated Economy The hoopla over the astonishing downward revisions to job growth in recent months – and the political tremors that followed – suggests that the labor market is weaker than thought. But that doesn’t change our assessment of the broader economy. We already knew that

(Printable PDF) Tariffs Deliver A Gut Punch, But Not A Knockout The dog days of summer are upon us, and the controversies over the economy, monetary policy, tariffs, and inflation are heating up. Ask a two-handed economist whether things are looking good, and the answer is likely to be… yes

(Printable PDF) A Waiting For Godot Economy The heightened uncertainty and angst among households and businesses over trade and fiscal policies have not abated. Worse, the flare-up of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has added another layer of turbulence to the economic landscape. Yet the headlines sounding notes of

(Printable PDF) The Tariff Shock A de-escalation of trade tensions is high on the list of what most economists believe is necessary to sustain growth in the U.S. On May 12, they got their wish – sort of. On that day, U.S. trade officials announced a detente with China –

(Printable PDF) Shock Waves The economy is reeling from multiple shocks, spurring economists to reshape their outlook for growth, inflation, unemployment, monetary policy, and financial markets. The silver lining is that the economy was in good shape ahead of these shocks, with unemployment low, inflation retreating, and the markets retaining

(Printable PDF) No Time for Complacency The economy isn’t in – or flirting with – a recession, but that hasn’t stopped many from sounding the recessionary alarm. That’s not surprising. Heightened uncertainty goes hand in hand with fears of the unknown, and those fears can cause changes in behavior. It’s

(Printable PDF) The One Certainty This Year Is… Uncertainty. It would be wonderful to say that the economy started 2025 with a bang, setting the stage for another year of solid performance. Sadly, that’s not the case, as key data on activity weakened and inflation jumped in January. Happily, one-month

(Printable PDF) A Bifurcated Economy On the surface, the U.S. economy is strong. GDP growth is near its short-run potential, unemployment is low, consumers are spending, and manufacturing is coming back to life, spurred by AI-related spending on structures and equipment. Based on the strong performance of all key indicators

(Printable PDF) New Year, New Challenges The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in its three-month-old easing cycle that started with a robust half-point reduction in September. The latest quarter-point cut won’t be the last, according to predictions made at the December 17-18 policy meeting. The question