Economic Newsletter

(Printable PDF) Tariffs Deliver A Gut Punch, But Not A Knockout The dog days of summer are upon us, and the controversies over the economy, monetary policy, tariffs, and inflation are heating up. Ask a two-handed economist whether things are looking good, and the answer is likely to be… yes

(Printable PDF) A Waiting For Godot Economy The heightened uncertainty and angst among households and businesses over trade and fiscal policies have not abated. Worse, the flare-up of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has added another layer of turbulence to the economic landscape. Yet the headlines sounding notes of

(Printable PDF) The Tariff Shock A de-escalation of trade tensions is high on the list of what most economists believe is necessary to sustain growth in the U.S. On May 12, they got their wish – sort of. On that day, U.S. trade officials announced a detente with China –

(Printable PDF) Shock Waves The economy is reeling from multiple shocks, spurring economists to reshape their outlook for growth, inflation, unemployment, monetary policy, and financial markets. The silver lining is that the economy was in good shape ahead of these shocks, with unemployment low, inflation retreating, and the markets retaining

(Printable PDF) No Time for Complacency The economy isn’t in – or flirting with – a recession, but that hasn’t stopped many from sounding the recessionary alarm. That’s not surprising. Heightened uncertainty goes hand in hand with fears of the unknown, and those fears can cause changes in behavior. It’s

(Printable PDF) The One Certainty This Year Is… Uncertainty. It would be wonderful to say that the economy started 2025 with a bang, setting the stage for another year of solid performance. Sadly, that’s not the case, as key data on activity weakened and inflation jumped in January. Happily, one-month

(Printable PDF) A Bifurcated Economy On the surface, the U.S. economy is strong. GDP growth is near its short-run potential, unemployment is low, consumers are spending, and manufacturing is coming back to life, spurred by AI-related spending on structures and equipment. Based on the strong performance of all key indicators

(Printable PDF) New Year, New Challenges The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in its three-month-old easing cycle that started with a robust half-point reduction in September. The latest quarter-point cut won’t be the last, according to predictions made at the December 17-18 policy meeting. The question

(Printable PDF) American Exceptionalism Should Endure Reflections on the U.S. elections are ongoing and will likely dominate the media for some time to come. That said, the polls are closed, and all eyes are focused on what the ramifications of the incoming Trump administration will be for the U.S. economy.

(Printable PDF) Despite External Shocks, The Economy Is In Good Shape Once again, reports of the recovery’s imminent demise are premature. Just as the seasons change, so do perceptions of the economy’s health. In the waning days of the summer, things looked dire indeed. The job market was sputtering, consumers

(Printable PDF) The Economy Exits The Fast Lane The U.S. economy is going through a transition phase and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent but unspectacular. The probability of entering a recession in 2025 is considered low, but not zero. Some of

(Printable PDF) Rate Cuts Are On The Way For the first week of the month, it looked like we were entering the time-honored “dog days of August”, that foreboding mindset people get when they feel stuck in the mud and sense that things just aren’t going right. The first inkling