Economic Newsletter

Printable PDF It’s Not Stagflation, But It Sure Is “M.E.S.S.I” The U.S. economy is going through another rough patch, as supply shortages abound, workers are hard to find, and inflation is surging. Legislators are at loggerheads over the two major pieces of legislation that the White House is struggling to

Printable PDF The U.S. Economy – A Delta Detour The U.S. economy is past its fastest growth phase, but like a marathoner it still has plenty in reserve to continue the run. Until the Delta variant reared its ugly head it was thought that conditions would have returned to normal

The US economy passed a key milestone in the second quarter as it more than recouped output lost during the Covid-induced recession.

The economy just finished the second quarter coming off the second strongest growth rate since 1978. The powerful post-pandemic reopening boost is still unfolding. But the rapid reopening has brought with it a host of problems, highlighting the fact that the road to normalcy is unlikely to be smooth.

Americans are as flexible as they are resilient, so it comes as no surprise that they are efficiently adapting to a post-pandemic world. For sure, the health crisis has not been entirely vanquished.

The economic environment is ripe for naïve and misguided narratives. Taken at face value, the latest reports on jobs, consumer prices, and retail sales suggest that the U.S. is in the grips of a jobless recovery and a stalling economy that is weighed down, by worrisome inflationary pressures.

The well-telegraphed heat wave in economic activity is underway. Most key economic data for March exceeded expectations, punctuating a quarter that turned out to be considerably stronger than anyone predicted earlier in the period.

Spring has sprung, and the season of hope is resonating throughout the economy. After suffering a 3.5 percent contraction in 2020 – the steepest since demobilization in 1946 – real GDP is poised to surge as much as 7 percent this year, which would rival the biggest annual gains since World War II.

The bleak economic landscape that prevailed in the closing months of 2020 has not faded from the collective memory of the American public. With the pandemic still claiming too many lives and the economy still reeling from business restrictions and virus fears that hamper normal behavior, the lingering effects cannot be ignored.

It’s shaping up to be a cold winter for the U.S. economy, as the pandemic continues to rampage throughout the nation and wreak havoc on all forms of activity that involves in-person transactions. State and local governments are tightening business restrictions and urging residents to more diligently adhere to social distancing protocols.

We’ve always said that the health crisis would determine the path of the economy, and the latest news on the pandemic is concerning. Cases of the virus, hospitalization and mortality rates have surged to unfathomable levels, and health experts believe this distressing trend will accelerate after the holidays.

Like his former boss, President Barack Obama, Joe Biden will be inheriting a damaged economy when he takes office on January 20, 2021. The Covid-19 pandemic has not only sent the nation into its deepest recession since the 1930s, it is leaving indelible scars that will restrain activity for some time to come.