(Printable PDF) The Economy’s Roller Coaster Ride Continues Renewed economic vigor is upending expectations. Last year ended with a thud, with consumers retrenching, inflation receding, and financial markets slumping. Recession fears became more pronounced as did expectations the Federal Reserve would soon pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign to prevent a

(Printable PDF) Slowing Inflation Offers Hope for 2023 Murphy’s Law played out in dramatic fashion last year, as virtually anything that could go wrong seemingly did. The pandemic morphed into a new variant; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited a spike in energy, food and other commodity prices that reinforced the

(Printable PDF) Recession Ahead: Will It Be Mild Or Severe? It was a rough 2022, but the U.S. economy survived the myriad headwinds thrown at it, including raging inflation, geopolitical stress, skyrocketing interest rates, declining stock prices, a recurring COVID-19 wave, and the most aggressive pivot towards monetary tightening in

(Printable PDF) This Too Won’t Last Has the inflation worm turned? It’s still early, but the signs are encouraging as an expanding list of price measures are pointing to slower increases. Whether this favorable trend continues is an open question. Many factors underpinned the astonishing inflation cycle of the past

(Printable PDF) Slamming On the Brakes: Is a Crash Ahead? Alarms warning of a recession ring louder with each rate hike by the Federal Reserve. So far this year, there’s been plenty – five since March and still counting. Following the last three jumbo-sized 0.75 percentage point increases, the Fed’s

(Printable PDF) Recession Watch Enough is enough! The economy has demonstrated an astonishing amount of resiliency against the headwinds thrown at it over the past two years – Covid-19, both short and long, surging energy prices, spiraling interest rates, supply shortages, and, not least, stubbornly high inflation. Through it all,

(Printable PDF) Confusing Times As summer draws to a close, the debate over whether the economy is overheated or rapidly cooling remains unanswered. According to the broadest measure of activity conditions look downright recessionary, as GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period, satisfying the common yardstick

(Printable PDF) Don’t Rule Out A Soft Landing In real estate, they say location is everything. In economics, timing is paramount. With prices rising at a pace not seen since the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve admittedly waited too long to start putting on the brakes, believing that the initial

(Printable PDF) For The Fed, Failure To Curb Inflation Is Not An Option Last year the main debate among economists was whether the inflation upsurge that suddenly gripped the nation was transitory or lasting. Most, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, blamed transient forces related to the pandemic, which they

(Printable PDF) When Will Inflation Peak? It’s been a rough ride for investors as red ink has spilled profusely so far this year. The losses have been particularly acute in the bond market, which, ironically is usually the refuge for investors seeking safety and stability when conditions get dicey. Not

(Printable PDF) Here Come The Rate Hikes The Russian invasion of Ukraine is primarily a human tragedy, but the global economic costs can’t be ignored – and they are piling up. It’s unclear how long the war will go on; the longer it persists, the greater the toll on world